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  • 2001

    Published June 23rd, 2002 by English Yellow Pages
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    Weather forecasters can take some comfort in the fact that, when they don’t have accurate data, their predictions for tomorrow’s weather can be based on today’s. Unfortunately, years tend to be different, one from another, and just as the year 2000 was different from 1999, so 2001 will differ in many ways from Y2K (remember Y2K?).

    In Italy, the big news will be a reduction in unemployment, from its current level of 10.4% to about 9.6%. Given that a year ago, unemployment was 11.4%, this is a significant change. I wish I could say this change would be brought about by spectacular growth in the Italian economy, but I don’t expect that to happen. Rather, unemployment will go down because more Italians will leave the workforce than will enter it. This is the leading edge of the demographic change that will transform Italy, and this will be an important year to watch because of it.

    I predict that there will be two national elections in 2001. Silvio Berlusconi will win the first. My crystal ball gets a little cloudy looking at the second.

    The Italian economy will grow at a pace of about 2.5% in 2001, not very different from the 2.7% recorded in 2000, and not different from my predicted rate of inflation, which I also estimate to be 2.5% in 2001. Growth will continue to shift from manufacturing to services, although I believe that Italian agriculture will begin a decade-long period of growth.

    The Euro will spend much of the next year within 5% of parity with the U.S. dollar, although it will probably fall almost to current levels towards the end of the year, as everyone gets nervous about its implementation.

    Because of lower unemployment (and the tax revenue gained from the newly employed), the Italian government will have some flexibility in its budgeting process. This should be helped by a significant drop in the price of petroleum, which should occur next spring ($24 a barrel, anyone?) It is unlikely that a new government will take full advantage of this flexibility, unfortunately, and if Berlusconi wins the election, expect some extra spending to placate his allies in the North and South, and even some money thrown at his opponents’ spending schemes to try and win enough time for his government to get established.

    The Internet and other high technologies will continue to play an increasing role in Italian life. More businesses will adopt networked communications, more interesting sites will appear, and more Italians will log onto the Internet for the first time. By the end of 2001, almost 20 million Italians will be able to say that they have used the Internet twice in the preceding month. The real challenge for Italian business and government will be to ensure that these 20 million Italians have something worthwhile to look at when they log on. I’m not sure that will happen.

    External events will probably be the major source of surprise for Italy next year. There could still be a major financial crisis in Turkey, which could change the number and nature of the tragic flotilla of boats heading for Italian shores. The election of George Bush to the American presidency will probably bring few benefits to Italy and could bring harm, as what little attention President Bush will pay to foreign affairs will probably be focused on once (and future?) enemies, with a little to spare for South America. Only France has been successful at keeping European affairs on the American agenda, and their growing internal political crisis means that they won’t be able to do much of this next year. This is most definitely not a good thing.

    Finally, I predict that most Italians will continue to live a very good life, getting a little older, a little wiser, a little heavier (stay away from those McDonalds, okay?), and a little more aware of the world outside its borders, thanks to the Internet, which will appear during the year as one of the only major media sources not controlled by Silvio Berlusconi. I hope 2001 will be a happy and healthy year for all current and future readers of Italy Daily.

    Thomas Fuller is an independent Internet analyst based in Turin.

    originally posted by: Thomas W. Fuller

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  • Biting Off More Than Tim Can Chew

    Published June 23rd, 2002 by English Yellow Pages
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    Tim, Tim, Tim. What are you thinking of? Youre 19 billion euros in debt, you face serious challenges here at home, and youre thinking of buying British Telecom Wireless? Lets review the bidding here.

    Cellular telephones are wonderful things to have, and the day will soon arrive when all Europeans have at least one. But you and your competitors just spent tens of billions of euros buying airspace for a new generation of telephones which do not yet exist, that will offer services that do not yet exist, using technology that has not yet been invented (unless you count WAP, which is clumsy, slow and stupid). Tim, Tim, wake up and smell the toast. British Telecom is selling its real estate now, thousands of hectares of land it purchased over the decades, just to make enough money to service its own debt. Serious analysts are hinting that generation 2.5 telecom technology may be good enough to eliminate the need for the third generation technology you all just spent so much to enable.

    The justification for all this mammoth spending was that Europeans needed an alternative way of accessing the Internet, because personal computers were not as popular in Europe as America. But recent statistics show that, in fact, Europeans are buying PCs nowItaly, not the leader by any means, now has 40% penetration of PCs in homes. If they can get free service from Tim.it to get on the Net, why will they pay Tim serious money to do it from their cell-phone, especially if mobile Internet connections are slower and dont show any graphics?

    Services like SMS are great for teenagers, but dont bring in anything close to the revenue per customer you will need to pay for this techno-fantasy called 3G. There isnt a telecom in the world that has an Internet portal that people really want to use as their principal gateway to the Interneteven if wireless Internet takes off, what makes you think youre going to get their traffic? Tim, do you realize you will need to make about $70 per month per customer just to break even on all this stuff? In contrast, normal Internet service providers break even with revenue of between $5 and $10 per month per customer. What will you offer your customers that is worth 10 times as much money?

    Amazingly enough, people seem to want to watch movies in theatres, sports and soap operas on television, and use computers (and radios) to get the latest information. They want to use telephones to talk to each other. Convergence is a wonderful concept, and it will happen, and it will revolutionize the look of our living rooms. But it will happen when it saves consumers money and makes their lives more convenient not when companies like Tim think of it as a way of getting more money per victimI mean customer.

    Why do you think BT Wireless wants to sell to you? Their parent company has a lot of moneywhy dont they want to buy you?

    Telecom Italias deal to buy Serbias telecom operator, smelly as it was, at least makes business sense. Serbs need a stable telecom operator, Telecom Italia has the money, and the potential for revenue growth is there. Where is the business sense behind this deal? If it gives you a strong position in Britain, Germany and the Netherlands, it also gives you risk exposure on a wider front.

    Tim, there is a reason why the shares of telecoms have dropped by half over the last few months. You people overpaid for what is, essentially, smoke. If you want to do something smart, operate in Albania, Romania and other countries that need wireless technology because they dont have telecom infrastructure. You can do that without breaking the bank or your shareholders.

    Thomas Fuller is an independent Internet analyst based in Turin.

    originally posted by: Thomas W. Fuller

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  • E-conomics For Italians

    Published November 11th, 2002 by English Yellow Pages
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    One reason that Italian companies have not moved onto the Internet as fast as Italian citizens is that the Internet normally acts to lower prices, and Italian companies don’t really want to do that.

    As pointed out in a recent edition of the Economist, the “euro area is supposedly a single market with a single currency – yet it is still a long way from having single prices.” Citing a report by the German investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, the article notes that the typical variation in prices for consumer products is equal to 22% of the average price. It also notes that of the six biggest economies in the euro zone, Italy’s prices are most expensive. I can add, strictly as anecdotal experience, that recent visits to Paris found prices to be the same or lower than prices in Rimini and Ravenna.

    Selling on the Internet should theoretically lower distribution and order fulfillment costs. But, as many unhappy American Internet companies have learned in the past year, these savings only come after a significant investment in IT, distribution, fulfillment and order systems. These savings also come at the expense of long-term, carefully cultivated relationships with the people who have been selling your products in the past, who are understandably upset when you bypass them and sell directly to the public. All of this trouble comes before the considerable task of persuading consumers that they should buy from you via the Internet. It’s easy to understand why Italian companies aren’t in an overwhelming rush to sell via the Internet.

    Unfortunately for them (but fortunately for consumers), Italian companies don’t have much of an option. The country where prices are cheapest is nearby Spain, and Spanish companies are starting to move towards the Internet in a significant way. Italian consumers have more money than Spanish consumers, and there is no doubt that, once companies are selling goods online, they will have an Italian translation of their Web pages. Once the word gets out, frugal Italian shoppers will have a chance to compare prices and make better decisions. For example, Miro, a Spanish online retailer, sells a Phillips DVD 705/710 player for 59,000 pesetas, which converts to about 700,000 Lire, or 306 American dollars. CHL, an Italian online retailer, didn’t carry Phillips DVD players, although it did sell another model (Pioneer 525) for 890,000 Lire, and Postal Market is selling a Sony DVD player for 780,000 Lire.

    I remember watching in amazement as French buses brought loads of one-day shoppers to downtown Turin in 1994 to exploit the lower prices that could be found in Via Roma when compared to the Champs-Elyses, or even Chambry. I have no doubt that Italians vacationing in lower-priced countries every summer manage to bring back with them some tangible fruits of the difference in prices between countries. When it comes to getting a good bargain, I think Italians will use the Internet, as well.

    The combination of the EU and the Internet makes it certain that Italian companies can no longer ignore pricing pressures from their neighbors. If they acted now, they could compete – in part by selling their goods to countries where prices are even more expensive than in Italy, such as the United Kingdom. However, if they bury their heads in the sand and hope the Internet will go away, price transparency and ease of electronic ordering and distribution will leave them with ever smaller market shares and profit margins.

    The bottom line is, the consumer doesn’t really have to care about profit margins. If Internet companies offer better prices, those who can shop there will. And anyone who thinks that Italians will “Buy Italian” as a matter of patriotism has only to look at the increasing number of foreign cars on Italian streets to realize that is not the case.

    Thomas Fuller is an independent Internet consultant living in Turin. He can be reached at thomaswfuller@yahoo.com.

    originally posted by: Thomas W. Fuller

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  • Italy, France and Internet Hype

    Published November 11th, 2002 by English Yellow Pages
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    There are cynics, both in America and here in Europe, who claim that the Internet is nothing more than marketing. They cite the never-ending hype about nebulous products and services, businesses built on back-of-the-envelope ideas, the never-ending flood of press releases from companies operating out of the back rooms of pizza parlors and quite logically conclude that the Internet is all smoke and mirrors. They’re wrong – something exciting and important is being born here – but that doesn’t mean that these people have no reason at all to feel the way they do.

    France has spent the last two years preaching about their conversion to the Internet. They’ve had their fair share of start-ups (usually owned and operated by the families of large French businesses or graduates of the famous state schools for the elite), they’ve generated a lot of discussion in the national media, and they’ve managed to attract a fair amount of capital. Most analysts talk about France in the same breath as England and Germany as fairly wired countries, behind the Internet juggernauts like the United States and the Scandinavian countries. In effect, France has marketed itself as a wired country, and the world has been convinced.

    But Italy is more wired than France. Surprise! It has more Internet users (12 million in Italy, vs. 9 million in France), more cell-phone users, more portable computers, more WAP users and more kilometers of fiber-optic cable within its borders. While the huge majority (almost 70%) of France’s Internet users live in or within spitting distance of Paris, Italian Internet users are spread throughout the country, although heavier concentrations are found near Rome and Milan, and the North is more wired than the South.

    I have remarked in this space before that Italian businesses are not moving onto the Web as fast as their customers – but neither are French businesses, although there are slightly more French businesses than Italians on the Internet. This can be measured by looking at the number of domains each country has registered per 1,000 people. A domain name is the part of the Internet address after the @ symbol, identifying the organization responsible for the Web server. The OECD average is 9.5 domains per 1,000 people. Both France and Italy are far behind the average, with 4.5 and 3.5 respectively. Both countries find themselves behind such Internet powerhouses as Belgium and Luxembourg.

    The difference between the perception of France as moving forward and of Italy trapped far behind is really a matter of marketing. France has made the decision that it will be a wired country and is advertising itself as such. Italy is doing nothing of the sort.

    Does it make a difference? Yes. France has had much more success in attracting capital from other countries for high technology (not just Internet) business ventures. Yahoo, Amazon.com, Monster.com, AOL and many other large Internet companies opened in France first – and many of these are only now considering opening in Italy. Choices students are making in the universities of the two countries reflect student attitudes towards their homeland’s future direction, and French students are studying the New Economy while Italian students are studying the Old.

    Italy could market itself as more than a land of beautiful scenery and marvelous ruins, but the only Italian who understands marketing well enough to do the job, Silvio Berlusconi, is busy marketing himself as the next Prime Minister. Partly because I disagree with him on most issues, and partly for the greater good of Italy, I would like to suggest here and now that he abandon his race to lead Italy for 12-18 months (the recent average lifespan of Italian governments) and take on the more important (and more entertaining) task of reshaping Italy’s (and the world’s) attitudes towards Italy and the Internet.

    Thomas Fuller is an independent Internet consultant living in Turin. Comments to him can be emailed to thomaswfuller@yahoo.com.

    originally posted by: Thomas W. Fuller

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  • Italy In Europe

    Published November 11th, 2002 by English Yellow Pages
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    Okay, let’s pretend that you are the prime minister of Italy, and that for some strange reason you hired me as an analyst to tell you how things are really going in this country. I already told you about Italy as it stands today and how Italy compares to Italy past. Today I am going to tell you how Italy compares to the 48 other countries in Europe. I picked the criteria because I thought they might tell a story, and I picked them before I knew what the results would be. The source of my statistics was the Economist’s fifth edition of Europe In Figures.

    In the chart at right, I compare 40 different points on which you can evaluate a country, including life expectancy, cancer deaths, GDP per person, percentage of glass recycled and public spending on unemployment benefits. How does Italy compare to its neighbors?

    Of the 40 points analyzed, Italy was among the best in 9 of them, in the middle on 14, and among the worst in 17. Some of the categories where Italy was best are very important – the Human Development Index, life expectancy, total gross domestic product, low number of abortions and divorce. These are bottom line statistics, and I won’t forget them even if I sound critical on the other points. However, I might point out that some of these might indicate strength of the family, not the society.

    Italy is in the middle of Europe on categories such as unemployment, population density, forested land and certain types of pollution. It’s in the middle also on such things as cancer deaths, motor vehicle deaths and infant mortality, areas where you would think Italy could do a lot better with a little effort and some common sense.

    Where Italy does the worst mostly involved government and demographics. These points show that Italy is old and getting older, not having enough kids, etc., the kind of things I have been writing about for 18 months. But Italy is also third in number of AIDS cases, and 15th out of 16 countries in money (per capita) donated to developing countries. Italy spends 0.55% of its GDP on unemployment benefits for a large number of unemployed people. In comparison, the Netherlands spends almost 3% of GDP on benefits for a very low number of unemployed.

    Italy is among the worst in economic growth rates over the last decade, at 1.5%. Ireland, by comparison, grew at almost 7% a year during that time frame. And, although Italy’s trade figures look big at first glance, they are a very low percentage of GDP, meaning somebody is leaving money on the table. Italy puts too much carbon dioxide into the air, and is last in recycling paper and glass.

    As an analyst, I sometimes notice things that don’t make it into the statistics. I was struck doing this analysis by the company Italy kept. In the areas where Italy did not do well, it was surrounded by central European countries, as well as Spain and Portugal. Rarely was Italy in the same rank with countries like Norway or the U.K: I’d be worried by that if I were reporting to the prime minister.

    To summarize the chart, I’d say that Italy has a healthy (though aging) and wealthy (though worried) population that has decided not to have children, an economy that shows no sign that it wants to grow, and a society that is indifferent about pollution and recycling, despite a lot of Green rhetoric. The only entity in Italy that seems to want to grow is government, and it seems to want to grow without providing essential services to the people it taxes.

    If these numbers draw a different picture for you, I’d really like to hear about it. My email address is below.

    Thomas Fuller is an independent analyst based in Turin. Comments to him can be addressed to thomaswfuller@yahoo.com.

    originally posted by: Thomas W. Fuller

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  • Italy Now and Then

    Published November 11th, 2002 by English Yellow Pages
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    Perfect knowledge of history would allow us to compare the present to the past and to make confident statements about some future events. However, perfect knowledge of even the recent past is impossible, and less possible in Italy than in many other countries. (Sorry, ISTAT, but I have to call ’em the way I see ’em.)

    For example, in 1999 Italy had a respectable 23.4 million workers. But in 1985 Italy had 23.2 million workers. So, in fifteen years, while GDP doubled, the workforce barely grew. This is sad for Italy’s workforce, but strong evidence that Italian industry grew dramatically in productivity and profitability. This might also be partially explained by another historical comparison – the number of days lost to strikes in Italy has dropped from 226 per thousand workers in 1988 to 9.5 in 1999, one of the most dramatic changes over a decade’s time that anyone could imagine.

    The economies of almost all developed countries grow almost every year, and this growth is almost always between 2% and 4% each year. Three almosts in one sentence. Whew. Historically, Italy’s economic growth has been closer to 2% than 4% (and unfortunately has often been below even 2% in the last 10 years), and unless this changes, Italy’s economy will not support the government spending necessary to provide essential services.

    In 1999, Italy’s GDP was 1,126 billion dollars (In 1990, it was 928 billion in PPP (purchasing power parity) dollars, and in 1980, it was only 489 billion dollars). If Italy averages 2% growth over the next 20 years, its GDP will reach 1.7 trillion dollars in 2019. If the Italian government continues to collect 43% of GDP in taxes, it will have 788 billion dollars to spend on services. If, however, GDP growth averages 4%, its GDP will be $2.5 trillion, government revenue $1.16 trillion, and it will be able to spend more money on pensions and interest charges on the national debt. But wait a minute; the Italian government took 38.4% of the nation’s GDP in 1984, but this grew to 43% in 1999. Is this a trend that will continue? If Italy wants to pay pensions to its growing number of retirees, how can government expenditures not grow?

    Because we know quite a bit about Italy’s population (the number of women, their fertility rate, the number of live births, infant mortality), and because this information goes back for a significant period of time, we can say with some confidence that unless things change dramatically right now, and I mean starting today, that Italy’s population has peaked, and that the population will decline, slowly at first (to about 55 million people in 2015) but then faster, falling to between 41 and 46 million people in 2050.

    Italy’s unemployment has not changed much over the last 15 years, although it is dropping rapidly now. Nor has the amount of money foreign businesses are willing to invest in Italy changed, remaining the lowest for EU countries. Italians save much less than in the past, declining steadily from 23.4% of disposable household income in 1980 to its current level of 12.7%.

    In short, the visible changes in Italy over the past 15 years – the more modern cars, the higher quality of life, the ubiquity of cellular telephones, etc. – seem in fact to be symptomatic evidence of deeper changes, changes in the composition and behavior of the population, changes in how government governs, and how businesses do business. These changes seem on analysis to be fully as important and fundamental as the more spectacular changes that followed the conclusion of the Second World War.

    Thomas Fuller is an independent analyst currently based in Turin. Comments to him can be addressed to thomaswfuller@yahoo.com.

    originally posted by: Thomas W. Fuller

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  • Year of the Euro

    Published November 11th, 2002 by English Yellow Pages
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    Looking at my predictions for last year, I see that I underestimated Silvio Berlusconi’s staying power, and failed to predict the events of September 11. I’ll try to be more prescient this year.

    In one of the next five years, the outside world is going to hit Italy like a ton of bricks, forcing radical changes in banking regulations, corporate governance, pension administration and public education. I don’t think it will be in 2002, however, as I don’t see anyone on the national scene with enough guts to put his or her head on the chopping block to force change.

    So 2002 will be a year of waking up, mostly caused by the Euro. Italians will find out how little they make in salaries (bad news), how much they have saved in comparison to everyone except the Japanese (good news), how much money has been illegally stored outside the country, and how different prices are in other parts of Europe. Italians can be curious gossips when it comes to other people’s finances and general well-being, and they will pay attention to the differences in living standards highlighted by the Euro’s introduction.

    Technology will continue to improve and/or complicate the lives of those in Italy, as broadband access to the Internet, wireless data transfer, improvements in healthcare technology, all conspire to compensate for deteriorating public investment in infrastructure. This may even spread to public education, but I fear that the unions will successfully defend their turf for another year or two.

    Unemployment will continue to fall, perhaps to 8.5%, but paradoxically, so will the total percentage of Italians with jobs, as retirement begins to rob Italy of its work force. Technology and productivity gains in the private service sector will compensate for this shortage of people for the time being, and immigrants (mostly illegal) will take some of the strain in the manufacturing sector. Government, which has the opportunity to reduce employment from its current 16%, will muff the chance and continue to hire people which it will then turn into gray bureaucrats unfit for anything. What a waste.

    The Italian GNP will increase more than other Euro countries, as skilled and clever Italian businessmen and women move quickly to take advantage of new opportunities caused by the single currency. The GNP will increase about 2.2%, despite the continued decline of bellwether companies such as Fiat and Alitalia. Prime Minister Berlusconi will do better in the private sector than the public, as Mediaset profits from paralysis at RAI.

    Italy’s hole in its public financing will ensure that Italians watch very carefully as France and Germany negotiate a ‘gimme’ from the EU for similar deficits. If negotiations fail, all three countries are subject to a fine of billions of Euros. Expect a declaration of ‘this once and no more’ about the time that ECB head Wim Duisenberg makes way for a more pragmatic French president.

    After being wrong in predicting two elections last year, I will risk similar embarrassment by predicting no elections this year. Berlusconi will profit from external events, confusion on the left, and a desire to let the Euro sort itself out before heavy politicking. But his shady dealings in the past will influence a major part of my predictions for 2003.

    In short, it is very possible that 2002 will greatly resemble 2001, with Italians finishing the year a little better off, a little fatter, a little wiser, and a little more aware of the problems that will face them in this pivotal decade for the Italian Republic. I certainly hope so, and hope also that my readers, whether Italian, American or none of the above, enjoy the final week of this too-dramatic year.

    Thomas Fuller is an independent Internet analyst based in Turin. Comments to him can be addressed to thomaswfuller@yahoo.com.

    originally posted by: Thomas W. Fuller

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  • Dinosaurs, Or Just Villains?

    Published November 11th, 2002 by English Yellow Pages
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    Italy and the rest of Europe will have to accept that they are more or less off the American agenda for the foreseeable future. President George W. Bush, intent on restoring the health of large American corporations, will let nothing interfere with the mission that got him elected – not the environment, not the Balkans, not mad cow disease – and certainly not the ailing New Economy. Europe today is old hat, a regime that offers the Texas mindset nothing but awkward problems, without any great opportunity for his true constituency. There is no upside here for Bush. It was the old Economy – big oil, big business and big religion – that supported him, and it is they who are most threatened by the freedom of the New Economy. They are having trouble with Europe too, and prefer to look at situations they can dominate, in Asia and Latin America.

    Italy can find parallels to this situation within its own borders. Telecom Italia, which in America would be almost by definition a New Economy company, is an Italian dinosaur, afraid to wander far from the feeding ground of its state-controlled monopoly practices. In return, Telecom Italia is a bulwark of the Italian state – not any particular party, but the administrative bureaucracy that doesnt change with the annual election cycle. Indeed, the entire salotto buono, given new life by Mediobancas decision to continue in its old (very old – think Old Testament old) business practices, is so intricately interlocked as to make any New Economy venture seem threatening, and they also are a bulwark of Italian governing institutions.

    Online retailers in Italy find it difficult to pass lower costs on to consumers because of price controls. Online auctioneers must play an elaborate subscription game in order to allow citizens to engage in one-to-one transactions, and the legality of even this farce is being considered. Using the Internet here is more expensive than in most places, despite the fact that Italy has a modern telephone network and switching system – and its no coincidence that Telecom Italias revenues and profits are rising. The Italian state, while refusing to do business with its citizens online, has impeded Internet usage in dozens of little ways, from regulatory oversight of domain name distribution to high taxation and over-regulation of small businesses.

    The true dinosaurs of developed economies – banks, insurance companies, health care institutions, large government bodies and state-owned or controlled companies – depend on their being able to control access to information and services which they sell or rent at monopoly prices. We are their captive clients, unable to avoid doing business with them. Yes, the New Economy is a threat to them. Since it is highly unlikely that these dinosaurs will adopt the principles (free and open access to information, low transaction costs, immediate two-way communications, responsiveness to customer wishes, etc.) of the New Economy any time soon, it is only natural that our perception of these companies as enemies of the public good will increase, as has happened in America.

    They are formidable in appearance, these Old Economy companies, and present an almost united front. The weapons that the New Economy can use against them seem insubstantial: Speed of communication, flexibility, transparency, openness and a lack of an embedded infrastructure dont seem like much in comparison to the assets of the big boys. It will seem like a guerilla war at first, to the extent that a warlike analogy is appropriate.

    The Big Boys just reassumed power in my native land, and so it is easier to see who they are and what they believe. Here in Italy, they have never left power, and so they are almost invisible, taken for granted. But in both countries, the Big Boys have consistently acted as if they are against most of the principles and ideas that members of liberal democracies with free markets and legal institutions should wholeheartedly endorse. I have called them dinosaurs and big boys – maybe its time to use the right phase. Theyre the bad guys, and Im against them.

    Thomas Fuller is an independent Internet analyst based in Turin. Comments to him can be addressed to thomaswfuller@yahoo.com.

    originally posted by: Thomas W. Fuller

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  • Peace March

    Published April 7th, 2009 by English Yellow Pages
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    We marched on Saturday under what the Italians refer to as a cielo velato, or veiled sky of hazy sunshine. We marched ten kilometers from the hillside town of Monteprandone down to San Benedetto, the coastside town where we have spent many lazy summer days. Our daughter Alesssandra remembered the wonderful ice cream store near the public fountain where we gathered to hear the speakers, and like always, she had chocolate.

    After a shuttle bus ride from where we parked at the bottom of the hill, we gathered in the parking lot of a church, surrounded by a sea of rainbow PACE flags. My husband Giorgio couldnt help but joke of the entirely different meaning these signs would have in San Francisco. Here in Italy, they hang off of nearly every balcony, and remind me in their number and import of all the American flag stickers on all those SUVs back home right after 9/11. He held aloft our hand-made Americans Against Bushs War sign. It was attracting a lot of attention. We saw Ales math teacher Marina, who couldnt have been more pleased at our bringing Alessandra. The Maestra wished out loud that she had encouraged more of the parents to attend. The fifth grade teacher and her brother each held up an end of their vinyl sign with basta! (meaning enough!) painted in shiny red. We saw our friend Silvia wearing a red Che Guevera t-shirt in the middle of a group holding up the 25 yard-long rainbow peace flag she had sewn. After the representatives of the various regions marched by holding up their medieval coat-of-arms on velvet banners, just like they do at the start of the summer Quintana celebration, we quietly started down the road en masse. I wasn’t sure what to expect; there was no chanting, no singing, just the normal bantering of Italians in a group. There were a few discussions of the war, but since we were all there in solidarity, with much the same viewpoint, these conversations ended quietly, with a general shaking of the head. Firefighters passed out liter bottles of water, thereby ensuring that no one would drop out due to thirst, just like they do in San Francisco for the Bay to Breakers marathon.

    At one point, during the march, when the road quickly melted from the urban to the rural (as many roads do around here), I commented to Giorgio that this felt like we were just taking a week-end stroll, not like any kind of protest. There were no onlookers or counter-protesters clogging the streets, no traffic that had come to a halt as we passed, just a nonna or two hanging out a farmhouse window, a gaping toddler on a dusty driveway, a couple of big rigs passing by on the overpass honking their support. But it felt good to be doing it just the same, because it is the right thing to do, even if it felt a bit like spitting into the wind.

    About halfway to San Benedetto, we were approached by a man who said in American-accented English, I saw your sign-I am one of the speakers today and I was wondering if you would come up on stage with me in a show of solidarity. We quickly agreed. It turns out that Robert is an Associate Professor of Political Science from aprominent East Coast University, which has set up a study abroad program under his direction here in Ascoli Piceno. Weve met several of his students before, even had a group of them up to the house last fall. But we had never met him personally. He was marching with his Swedish girlfriend, Lara, and I commented that I was suprised that none of the students were there. He told us that many of the parents have specifically asked that he not encourage them to attend these kinds of demonstrations. I wonder out loud if this is because they are concerned about their childrens safety as Americans abroad, and he quietly responds, no: its because most of their parents are Bush supporters. Many are or have been active in the military. Robert has lived in Italy on and off for many years, and he looks a bit like Al Pacino in the later Godfather years.

    His speech was very moving, and well received: he is interrupted many times by applause. It is not subtle. He asks the demonstrators to remember that Bush is in office illegally, due to a hijacking and failure of the democratic process, and that there are many Americans who not only oppose the war, but the administration and its overall agenda as well. He spoke about how hard it is to be an American who loves his country, but abhors its policies, and about his anger at how a great country is abusing its power and subverting its beloved ideals to achieve its questionable goals. He talked about the very effective misinformation campaign the government has devised to mislead Americans into believing that waging this war is the only way to stabilize the entire middle east and end terrorism. He said that in America today, to be pacifist or an activist is to be considered unpatriotic and un-American, and that this is exactly what the Bush administration wants us believe so that they can pursue their agenda unopposed. He reminded us just how dangerous that kind of thinking is, of how much is at risk and what loss of hard-won freedoms it can lead to. He asked that we pray for a swift end to the occupation and safe return of the troops. He thanked them for coming out and for believing that they can make a difference as true allies for peace.

    I find myself on the verge of tears several times as he is speaking, standing there holding our Americans against Bushs War" (the s of Bush having been made into a dollar sign). As we descend from the stage, I
    am approached by an older gentleman wearing a peace bandanna and a clean but very worn suit and sweater vest, the uniform of Italian men of a certain age. He tells me in a simple but accurate English that he lived in New York 20 years ago as an Italian teacher. He loves New York, he thinks that Americans are wonderful people. He wept when the Twin Towers fell, remembering a dinner he attended there once. But now he fears, his voice breaking, that America is headed down the wrong path and he is afraid that it will not lead to just our own downfall, but to much more dire consequences for all the world. He has lived through war in his own country, he tells me, and Americans dont really know how terrible it is. He tells me that I must continue to let my government know that what they are doing is wrong. Now I am crying for real, and Giorgio and Robert come to my rescue, thanking the old guy for his support because I dont know what to say.

    Robert tells us that he is going back to the U.S. in May so that he can actively do whatever he can to ensure that Bush will not be re-elected. He believes that what the old man said to me is more true than most of us are willing to believe, that we are at a very critical moment in not only American politics, but in world history and that it is the obligation of anyone who believes that the shift towards American imperialism and tyranny is ill-fated to do whatever they can to turn the tide. Were sad because just as we make a new friend, a like-minded well-informed American, hes going to leave. But I am secretly glad to know that he will be on American soil to fight for his convictions. Even if 70% of Americans claim to support the war, its comforting to know that guys like Robert make up a portion the 30% who dont.

    After taking the shuttle bus back to the starting point and getting in the car, Alessandra discovers she has a nasty blister on one foot. She told us that when she felt like giving up during the long walk-probably the longest she has ever been on- she thought of the Iraqi mothers she saw crying on television for their children who had died in the market bombing. They suffered more than this, and their babies died. She doesnt understand why anyone would want a war, and we are hard pressed to explain all the complex reasons why. Giorgio says that hes not sure that those kind of images are making it onto the American news. What is making on the news there, we are sure, are the images and stories of Iraqis who have suffered under Sadaams rule, Kurdish women whose faces look melted as a result of trying to scratch away the chemicals after being gassed. Both are real; both are wrong. The only thing I can think of is: there must be another way.

    04/01/03

    originally posted by: Susanne Saluti

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  • DANGER OF SWIMMING AFTER MEALS: FACT OR FICTION?

    Published September 17th, 2004 by English Yellow Pages
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    Many foreigners who live in Italy are disoriented by the attitude of most Italians towards swimming after meals, which sounds like this: simply do not, otherwise you are going to die. First of all, let me stress that this attitude is less common but still present in the U.S., U.K., and in Ireland, where I have been living and practising for many years. However, it is true, Italians are obsessed by not swimming after eating. The question is: does any scientific evidence support this attitude? As a matter of fact, the international medical literature provides no compelling conclusive support for a prolonged waiting time before swimming after meals. On the other hand, no research has ever clearly rejected this recommendation. Perhaps this lack of published scientific information is due to the fact that noting recent meals in cases of drowning or near-drowning is simply unavailable and/or not recorded. Alternatively, it might also be due to rarity of the problem, especially in swimming pools, which are easy to leave if symptoms like cramps arise. Considering how food is digested, waiting for complete absorption of a meal is impossible and impractical, as this may last several hours. After food is taken, enzymes in saliva and the stomach immediately begin digestion. Nearly 50% of the consumed food stays in the stomach for two hours, while the remaining 50% is emptied within the following four hours. Food spends another two hours in the small bowel and more than 12 hours in the large bowel. Furthermore, quality of foods is critical in terms of digestion. Simple carbohydrates (such as sugar in fruit, coke, etc.) are digested more quickly than fatty food (e.g. cheese, sausages, etc.). After meals, blood-flow to the digestive system increases in order to optimise absorption of nutrients. Therefore, less blood is available to deliver oxygen and to remove waste products from exercising muscles elsewere, including those involved with breathing and swimming, and the heart (which, also, is a muscle). Physical exercise after eating thus triggers a fight for blood between the digestive tract and the muscles. It has been suggested (but not proven) that at least some abdominal or muscle cramps might be related to difficulty to satisfy the increased requirements of the two competing systems. It is reasonable to assume that if cramping occurs in water, it will either paralyse or impair moving capabilities of a person so suddenly that he could drown. Therefore, the belief that swimming soon after meals is risky may not based on facts but on common sense, intuition, and traditional “wisdom”, and is supported by updated knowledge of phisiology. Strenuous phisical activity (of any kind) after large meals is certainly uncomfortable and discommended, and some time should therefore be allowed for digestion. Failing to do so, however, probably does not represent a lethal life threatening situation.
    Prof. L. Basso, Department of Surgery P. Valdoni, University of Rome La Sapienza Medical School, luigi.basso@uniroma1.it

    originally posted by: Prof. Luigi Basso

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